A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

NOx reburning in oxy-fuel combustion: A comparison between solid and gaseous fuels

In the development of oxy-fuel combustion, reburning of nitrogen oxides, recycled with the flue gases, has been investigated for primary NO_x control. Reduction of between 50 and 80% of the recycled nitrogen oxides has been measured. The present work evaluates the performance of gaseous and solid fuels as agents for reduction of nitrogen oxides by comparing experimental and modelling work performed at Chalmers University of Technology with different fuels. It is shown that the reduction is similar during propane and lignite firing, but that the lignite has slightly higher reduction efficiency. Differences in combustion temperature and heterogeneous effects are possible explanations.     

Assessing spatial variability of SO2 field as detected by an air quality network using Self-Organizing Maps,cluster, and Principal Component Analysis

In Bilbao (Spain), an air quality network measures sulphur dioxide levels at 4 locations. The objective of this paper is to develop a practical methodology to identify redundant sensors and evaluate a network's capability to correctly follow and represent SO₂ fields in Bilbao, in the frame of a continuous network optimization process.The methodology is developed and tested at this particular location, but it is general enough to be useable at other places as well, since it is not tied neither to the particular geographical characteristics of the place nor to the phenomenology of the air quality over the area.To assess the spatial variability of SO₂ measured at 4 locations in the area, three different techniques have been used: Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), cluster analysis (CA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results show that the three techniques yield the same results, but the information obtained via PCA can be helpful not only for that purpose but also to throw light on the major mechanisms involved. This might be used in future network optimization stages. The main advantage of cluster analysis and SOMs is that they provide readily interpretable results. All the calculations have been carried out using the freely available software R.     

Productivity equation for reclaiming surface mines

This article addresses the development of an agricultural productivity equation for predicting new soil (neo-sol) plant growth potential in Clay County, Minnesota, USA. Soil factors examined in the study include percent organic matter, percent slope, percent rock fragments, hydraulic conductivity, electrical conductivity, pH, topographic position, available water-holding capacity, bulk density, and percent clay. Squared terms and two-factor interaction terms were also examined as possible regressors. A best equation was selected that had a multiple coefficient of determination of 0.7399 and has five significant regressors and intercept withP.0001. The regressors are hydraulic conductivity, percent slope squared, bulk density times percent rock fragments, electrical conductivity times percent rock fragments, and electrical conductivity times percent organic matter. The regressors predict soil suitability for a general crop model. The crops included in the model are wheat, oats, barley, soybeans, sugar beets, sunflowers, and grasses/legumes.     

Liquid household hazardous wastes in the United States: Identification,disposal, and management plan

Present methods of disposal of today's hazardous household chemicals in the United States are frequently not acceptable because of pathways to groundwater, surface water, and the atmosphere. This report identifies potentially hazardous liquid waste in the household, notes current disposal practices, and recommends an improved management plan that utilizes consumer education, manufacturer cooperation, and governmental intervention. Laws requiring uniform disposal labeling on packaging are critical. Local, county, and state governments must be encouraged to coordinate the necessary infrastructure. Managing hazardous household wastes now will mitigate potential disposal problems.     

Sweet for the sour: Incentives in environmental mediation

The siting of facilities with undesirable environmental characteristics often leads to public conflict. Efforts to resolve the conflict and make siting decisions frequently exacerbate the problem. Environmental mediation, the process of negotiating an agreeable settlement, is an accepted approach to resolving conflict. This paper explores the use of incentive systems as a means of achieving equity in environmental mediation. Obnoxious and noxious characteristics of facilities are discussed as the basis of conflicts. Four types of incentives—mitigation, compensation, reward, and participation—are discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the utility and application of incentives for solving environmental conflicts.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

Impacts of land cover on stream hydrology in the West Georgia Piedmont, USA

The southeastern United States is experiencing rapid urban development. Consequently, Georgia's streams are experiencing hydrologic alterations from extensive development and from other land use activities such as livestock grazing and silviculture. A study was performed to assess stream hydrology within 18 watersheds ranging from 500 to 2500 ha. Study streams were first, second, or third order and hydrology was continuously monitored from 29 July 2003 to 23 September 2004 using InSitu pressure transducers. Rating curves between stream stage (i.e., water depth) and discharge were developed for each stream by correlating biweekly discharge measurements and stage data. Dependent variables were calculated from discharge data and placed into 4 categories: flow frequency (i.e., the number of times a predetermined discharge threshold is exceeded), flow magnitude (i.e., maximum and minimum flows), flow duration (i.e., the amount of time discharge was above or below a predetermined threshold), and flow predictability and flashiness. Fine resolution data (i.e., 15-min interval) were also compared to daily discharge data to determine if resolution affected how streams were classified hydrologically. Urban watersheds experienced flashy discharges during storm events, whereas pastoral and forested watersheds showed less flashy hydrographs. Also, in comparison to all other flow variables, flow frequency measures were most strongly correlated to land cover. Furthermore, the stream hydrology was explained similarly with both the 15-min and daily data resolutions.     

Rapid interphase analysis for prenatal diagnosis of translocation carriers using subtelomeric probes

Interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) has become an accepted laboratory technique for the rapid and preliminary prenatal assessment of chromosome aneuploidy. The introduction of subtelomeric FISH probes now allows for the molecular–cytogenetic analysis of terminal chromosome rearrangements. In a prospective study, we examined the prenatal use of subtelomeric probes on interphase cells to rapidly detect the carrier status of a fetus when a parent carried a known reciprocal or Robertsonian chromosome translocation. Three of the cases were identified as being abnormal. All cases were confirmed by routine cytogenetic analysis. These findings clearly demonstrated the utility of this technique and these probes to rapidly and correctly identify balanced and unbalanced chromosome anomalies of a fetus that could result from parental translocations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.